Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Daily News: Mark Teixeira’s wife Leigh nudged hubby toward Yankees
Every Friday night, Mark Teixeira and his wife, Leigh, have “date night” - dinner at their country club near their home in Texas. Two weeks before Christmas, it was more than just a chance to spend time together - it was the night Leigh Teixeira nudged her husband toward the Bronx.
Throughout his free agency, Teixeira solicited his wife’s opinion and she kept saying, “I just want you to be happy,” Teixeira recalled. On date night, Teixeira asked, “Everything’s equal, where do you want to go? She finally said, ‘I want you to be a Yankee.’”
God bless that woman.
And:
NY Times: Teixeira’s Wife Made the Call
As sweet as Teixeira’s reliance on his wife may seem to some, the Red Sox surely do not think it was cute. John Henry, the owner of the Red Sox; Larry Lucchino, their president; and General Manager Theo Epstein trekked to Texas to meet with Teixeira on Dec. 18, six days after Leigh revealed a preference for the Yankees. The Red Sox would not have sent three executives to Teixeira’s home unless they were confident about signing him.
Also,
Yankees Sign Angel Berroa
Thanks to DaPuj for the link.
Monday, January 5, 2009
ESPN: Yankees will be must-see TV
The home clubhouse at the new Yankee Stadium is enormous, significantly bigger than the one at the old Yankee Stadium. That’s good. It needs to be as large as possible to accommodate all the talent, the egos, the money and the pressure that will be in that room.
Those damn egos.
Yankees co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner warned us of this, claiming the Yankees would do “whatever it takes” to return to greatness in 2009 after winning 89 games, and not making the playoffs for the first time since 1994, in 2008.
Any team making the playoffs in 1994 was damn good.
“I still don’t have a good feel about their club,” one former Yankees player said. “They’ll have a great statistical club, but I still think they’re so away from what made them great. They don’t have enough down-and-dirty guys like (Scott) Brosius, Tino (Martinez) and (Paul) O’Neill.”
Is that you, Tony Womack?
There are even questions about the aforementioned home clubhouse in the new stadium. One Yankee recently whispered that it’s too big, each locker is like a little apartment, with too many amenities; he worried the players won’t ever talk to each other. Even that dynamic will be interesting to watch.
Oh heavens! Locker size will tear this team apart!
NY Daily News: Yanks almost ready to unveil Teixeira
The Yankees are making plans for a press conference to fete new first baseman Mark Teixeira, perhaps as early as Tuesday, according to baseball sources.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Salt Lake Tribune - Klapisch: Does Tex signing mean end for Jeter?
New York » At this time next winter, Derek Jeter will be approaching the end of his 10-year, $189 million contract, which has already left the Yankees vexed as to how to proceed. The debate centers on the question team officials have been putting off forever: Is there life after Jeter?
It might seem premature to wonder out loud, but with Mark Teixeira now in pinstripes, the Jeter era may well begin dwindling. Of course, the captain still is enormously popular with the fan base, and he’ll always be the link to the early days of the dynasty. But Teixeira is about to become the most valuable star in the Yankee family.
He is, after all, younger and more productive than Jeter; the numbers aren’t even close. Teixeira is more stable—both on and off the field—than Alex Rodriguez. And the first baseman already has a built-in reservoir of good will in greater New York after having blown off the Red Sox in the 11th hour of his negotiations.
I can’t see the Yankees not retaining Jeter when his contract is over, at least until he gets his 3000th hit. The question is going to be what position he’ll be playing and if he’ll be paid based on his name or on his actual value.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Yankees.com: Big signings affecting Pettitte’s return
Though the Yankees have not pulled their offer, they may be preparing for life without Pettitte, who has been advised not to accept such a dramatic pay cut from the $16 million he earned in each of the last two seasons.
Citing a source, Newsday reported that the Yankees felt comfortable with their offseason spending and the roster as comprised. Nothing has been finalized, but the Yankees are reportedly leaning toward not re-signing Pettitte. The New York Post characterized the chances of retaining Pettitte as “doubtful.”
“Right now it’s doubtful on Pettitte, given where we are financially with this stuff,” a Yankees official told the Post. “But things change, especially here, if Hank and Hal [Steinbrenner] decide to do something.”
Pettitte may seem like a luxury, but is that really the case?
Pettitte projects to pitch 210 innings and save 22 runs above replacement according to CAIRO.
Replacing Pettitte’s innings with 150 innings of Phil Hughes and 60 innings of Ian Kennedy project to be only a two run shortfall, although young pitchers are notoriously difficult to project so there’s a fair amount of risk in that approach.
Hughes hasn’t demonstrated enough durability to automatically pencil him in for 150 innings, so if we give him 100 innings and Kennedy 110, it’s a four run shortfall.
Let’s say A.J. Burnett gets hurt and only pitches 100 innings, moving Hughes up the depth chart and requiring 150 innings of Kennedy and 60 innings of Alfredo Aceves. Now we’re down nine runs.
You can see the effect as we move down the depth chart, ending up with Phil Coke and Dan Giese starting, both of whom CAIRO projects as around replacement level.
In a nutshell, the Yankees can weather an injury or two even if they don’t bring back Pettitte IF Hughes/IPK can pitch to their projections, but anything more than that starts to hurt them in the area of one to two wins.
Friday, December 26, 2008
An Early Look at the 2009 AL East
I used Sean Smith’s CHONE projections and built depth charts for offense, pitching and defense to get a rough idea of how the AL East would look right now on paper.
Offense
BR Batting runs using linear weights.
RS Runs saved compared to average on defense using CHONE’s projections, which are a combination of the standard zone rating that I use and John DeWan’s revised zone rating that is used on the Hardball Times site.
I did not use a replacement level for the bench here, I filled in the actual bench players for each team based on MLB.com’s depth charts. Playing time for the starters was primarily based on their projected playing time in CHONE, with the gaps filled in by the bench, ensuring that it all added up to 4100 outs which is the average of the outs made during batting by all teams last season.
Defense is already factored into the pitching projections that follow, so I did not double-count it. I’m just displaying it for informational purposes.
Pitching
According to CHONE, the Yankee pitching will lead the division in Ks and fewest HRs allowed. You can see by FIP they project to be the best staff in the AL East, although defense looks like it will narrow the gap between them and Tampa pretty significantly. BTW, the Yankee pitching projection no longer includes Andy Pettitte, as the inevitable may have not been inevitable after all. Ya snooze, ya lose Pettitte.
So what do all these dorky numbers really mean?
Overall
RS: Runs scored
RA: Runs allowed
Pyth W: PythagenPat Wins
Pyth L: PythagenPat losses
Opp W%: Projected winning percentage for the other four teams in the division
This table lists the projected runs scored, runs allowed and Pythagenpat wins and losses for each AL East team. The Opp W% column is the Pythagenpat record for each of the four AL East teams besides the listed team. I use this to calculate an AL East penalty for each team’s record. Which is 38 - Opp W% times 76. That works out to:
NYA (-2.6)
BOS (-2.8)
TBA (-3.3)
TOR (-4.8)
BAL (-5.3)
I add that to the PythagenPat wins to get a revised win/loss record.
And there you have it. The Yankees do look like the favorite in the AL East by this particular methodology, although it’s by no means a runaway.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Merry Christmas, Red Sox Fans
OK, just for reference, it’s “T-E-I-X-E-I-R-A”. That’s almost as tough to spell as “Mientkiewicz”, but I figured that one out, so I’m sure that we’ll get Texeria… er, Teixera… fuck.
By reaching agreement with Mark Teixeira on an 8-year/$180 million deal yesterday, the Yankees have perhaps positioned themselves as the best team in baseball for 2009. Before the story broke, there was very little reliable indication that the Yankees were even *interested* in Teixeira. Cashman met with him before the winter meetings, but repeated denials and insistence that the Yankees wished to cut their payroll (which, of course, is still possible, believe it or not), made those reports seemed more likely to be rumors planted by Scott Boras. But in the end, the Yankees stunned all but the most cynical of us and snagged the premier offensive player of the offseason, after signing the premier pitcher in C.C. Sabathia.
From my perspective, there were so many reasons to sign Teixeira that it made the exorbitant contract worth the investment:
1) The Yankees’ offense, while potentially circular and potentially good, was also lacking a reliable offensive force outside of Alex Rodriguez. Teixeira offers the kind of production the Yankees got from Jason Giambi in his strongest seasons with the Yankees (excluding 2002) and that Gary Sheffield provided in his first two seasons in New York. He doesn’t have quite as much power as the Big G, but is more likely to hit .300 than .250, which will likely make him a more satisfying producer in RISP situation. Teixeria’s bat doesn’t so much provide protection for A-Rod as it provide’s the lineup protection from an A-Rod slump, and makes it potentially devastating when he and Rodriguez are clicking at the same time.
2) First base was a big hole coming into this offseason. With Giambi leaving town, the Yankees traded for Nick Swisher as a potential replacement. But Swisher hit .219 last season, and while a rebound is likely, you don’t want to be in a situation where you have to *count* on a rebound. Teixeira eliminates the hole for the next few years, quite possibly for the duration of his contract, and now a rebound by Swisher can only make the team stronger, while a poor season won’t hurt them very much. If Swisher not only rebounds but actually turns into a great hitter, the Yankees will be able to stick him at a corner outfield spot for the next few years, and avoid having to fill a future need.
3) Speaking of future needs, have you looked at the 2009-10 free agent class? There really isn’t much out there beyond short-term patches, unless Matt Holliday has a great offensive season with the A’s. If the Yankees were to have missed the playoffs in 2009 because of a hole in the lineup, particularly at first base, there wouldn’t have been much help available next year. If their lineup flops this year, it won’t be from lack of trying—and with Matsui and Damon coming off the books, they actually have room in the budget to go after Holliday, too.
4) He’s a true switch-hitter. Unlike Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, who hit distinctly better from the right side of the plate, Teixeira’s numbers are only slightly worse as a lefty. This allows him to take advantage of the short porch at the new Yankee Stadium, while he actually helps the lineup more when teams throw out a lefty against them.
5) He was probably the last available free agent who would have distinctly helped the Red Sox. Sabathia would have helped Boston as he would help any team, but the Yankees were so focused on Sabathia and certain to outbid everyone (and any reason to blow off the Yankees would also apply to the Red Sox) that Boston didn’t bother to make an offer. Their lineup could improve in center, and obviously behind the plate; they could use another starter and their bullpen is potentially shaky. But there are no strong free agents who fit their holes, so Teixeira offered the only remaining opportunity for a big improvement.
Signing Teixeira, the Red Sox could have moved Kevin Youkilis back to third base, where his value would have jumped from being a very good first baseman to being an elite third baseman, if he could merely play average defense. That would create a question about what to do with Mike Lowell, who is signed for the next three seasons, but Boston shouldn’t have had much trouble moving him if they picked up some of his contract, and if they got a useful reliever in return, they would have addressed one of their needs, too.
The Yankees shouldn’t be signing players to keep them away from Boston—Steinbrenner did things like that in the 80s, which ended up leaving them with a lot of players they didn’t really need. But in the 2009 AL East, the Yankees will need to at least finish ahead of Boston or Tampa Bay to make the playoffs, and by improving your own team while preventing Boston from improving themselves, the Yankees have made their chances that much better.
Red Sox fans have to feel somewhat similar to how they did in February 2004. The Alex Rodriguez negotiations of that winter were interminable, but it came so close to fruition so many times that it seemed inevitable that something would be worked out… and then the Yankees swooped in with a more palatable deal for the Rangers and got A-Rod. This offseason Red Sox fans (and almost everyone else) felt that John Henry’s statement that the Red Sox would not be a factor for Teixeira was a negotiating ploy, and that eventually Tex would come back to the Red Sox when he found nobody else willing to meet his price and offering a shot at the playoffs. And then came the Yankees.
Like 2004, the Red Sox aren’t devastated by this news. They finished behind the Yankees in the standings that year, but won the pennant and their first World Series in 86 years, while A-Rod has developed a popular reputation as a choker who drags his team down in October. The Yankees’ success next year is no sure thing—this is still an old team, and a lot of things could go wrong and knock them out of contention. Even if things don’t go wrong, Boston isn’t distinctly worse than the Yankees, either. If Beckett returns to 2007 form, Clay Bucholz breaks out, and Matsuzaka and Lester don’t regress, their rotation is as good or better than the Yankees’. Their lineup is quite probably better than the Yankees’, but probably not by a large margin. Their defense is distinctly better, and bullpens are so volatile that who knows who will be better there.
But the Yankees are in about as good a shape heading into 2009 as you could have imagined when the 2008 season ended. If Andy Pettitte caves and takes the Yankees’ offer, their rotation will be:
C.C. Sabathia
Chien-Ming Wang
Joba Chamberlain
A.J. Burnett
Andy Pettitte
That leaves Phil Hughes in AAA for most of the season, and probably the first guy to come up when someone gets hurt. Behind him is probably Aceves, then Kennedy. Imagine that—the Yankees would need to have four injured starters at the same time before they even got into the Kei Igawa/Sidney Ponson territory again.
Their lineup has only one clear hole—center field. The Mike Cameron deal is apparently dead—and the $10 million they saved there might have helped them decided to go after Teixeira. But maybe Melky Cabrera plays more like 2007 than 2008 and they can afford to keep him in the lineup, or maybe Brett Gardner hits well enough to stick in the lineup. Maybe they throw caution to the wind and try Swisher out there, or settle for Damon in center all year and stick Swisher at a corner. Their lineup will probably outproduce their 2008 lineup by a fair margin, and it looks to be a lot more flexible.
What’s not to like about this deal? Well, Teixeira is going to be in New York until he’s 37, and he might stop hitting well enough for a first baseman before then. Maybe Boras got an opt-out clause for him, too (which would be a godsend to the Yankees… and a nightmare to the Cardinals if you think about it...), but that doesn’t seem terribly likely. Teixeira isn’t likely to command anything like this kind of contract at 32 or 33, or enough for his 37-40 seasons to make up the difference. It locks the Yankees into a lot of payroll for a long time to come, but if the new Yankee Stadium pays off for them like they hope, they might be able to manage another $100 million a year in payroll by the end of this contract. The unlikeable parts of the contract seem to be summed up by “it could go wrong… but it might not”.
For a chance to win a World Series again… it’s worth the investment.
CNNSI: Heyman: Yankees reach agreement with Teixeira on 8-year, $180M deal
The Yankees have reached an agreement in principle to sign Mark Teixeira, SI.com has learned, beating out the rival Red Sox for the free-agent slugger’s services.
Teixeira, who hit .308 with 33 home runs and 121 RBIs in 2008, will receive an eight-year, $180 million deal from the Yankees with a full no-trade provision.
This answers my question below I guess.
How Can the Yankees Upgrade Their Offense?
I wrote a post similar to this back in October, but with no movement since then I’m going to re-visit the question.
First off, let’s look at the Yankees as presently situated. With the exception of Jorge Posada, I’m going to set the starting lineup at 600 PA at every position and keep that constant as I run through the different options that are available. I’ll set the bench at replacement level for now.
(Click Comments to read more)