Sunday, May 11, 2008
Darrell Rasner: Great Pitcher or Greatest Pitcher?
The Yankees beat Detroit 5-2 yesterday thanks to a second strong start by Darrell Rasner. Rasner is likely pitching over his head right now, but we can use his projections coming into 2008 and his 2008 actual performance to date to see what we should expect from Rasner going forward.
Here are a few sets of numbers. The first is the average projection for Rasner using the projections I used in the looking ahead to 2008 entries.
2008 Average Projection
IP: 63
H: 73
ER: 35
HR: 8
BB: 19
K: 34
ERA: 5.01
The next thing we need to look at is his 2008 minor league performance translated to its major league equivalency.
2008 MLE
IP: 29
H: 26
ER: 7
HR: 1
BB:5
K: 19
ERA: 5.01 2.17
Here’s how he’s done in his two starts in the majors.
2008 MLB Actuals
IP: 12
H: 9
ER: 4
HR: 2
BB:1
K: 5
ERA: 3.00
Lastly, here’s Rasner’s 2008 MLE and MLB performance combined.
2008 Totals
IP: 41
H: 35
ER: 11
HR: 3
BB:6
K: 24
ERA: 2.41
For my CAIRO projections I used a weight of 6/4/3/2 for the past four seasons. So I would weigh his 2008 performance times 6 and his projection would be weighed at 4+3+2 = 9. We then have to factor in the innings so we don’t weigh his 2008 more than it should be weighed. Rasner’s projected innings are low because of his injury last season, so we still face the issue of overweighing 2008. Because of that I’m gong to pro-rate his projection to 150 innings.
So, here’s what that looks like.
2008 Projection: 9 x 150 = 1350
2008 Actual: 6 x 41 = 246
Divide 246 by 1350 + 246 and you get a weight of 0.15 for 2008 actual performance and 0.85 for his projection. Here’s what that gives us for Rasner going forward.
2008 Revised Projection
IP: 150
H: 169
ER: 80
HR: 18
BB: 43
K: 82
ERA: 4.77
So if we still work off the assumption of Rasner pitching a total of 150 innings (including his minor league time) here’s what his final season MLB line would look like when you add 109 innings of his revised projection to his 12 actual innings in MLB.
IP: 121
H: 132
ER: 62
HR: 15
BB: 32
K: 65
ERA: 4.60
I’d take that line from a fourth starter.
Projecting pitchers is always tricky because their talent level can change constantly in good or bad ways. Rasner added a cutter this year which some are crediting for his success. If that is indeed true then his 2008 projection may understate his talent level. I guess we’ll find out in due time.
NY Yankees(19-19) at Detroit Tigers(16-22), 1:05pm **Game Chatter**
NYY: A. Pettitte (3-3, 3.77 ERA) Det: N. Robertson (1-4, 6.64 ERA)
Lineups:
New York Yankees
J. Damon, LF
M. Cabrera, CF
B. Abreu, DH
D. Jeter, SS
J. Giambi, 1B
S. Duncan, RF
R. Cano, 2B
J. Molina, C
A. Gonzalez, 3B
Detroit Tigers
I. Rodriguez, C
P. Polanco, 2B
C. Guillen, 3B
M. Ordonez, DH
M. Cabrera, 1B
M. Thames, RF
E. Renteria, SS
R. Raburn, LF
B. Inge, CF
Make sure to wish your mom a Happy Mother’s Day. Go Yanks.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
NY Yankees(18-19) at Detroit Tigers(16-21), 3:40pm **Game Chatter**
Yanks up 1-0 in the first.
*Jonathan in for the belated lineups*
NY Yankees
J. Damon lf
D. Jeter ss
B. Abreu rf
H. Matsui dh
J. Giambi 1b
M. Cabrera cf
R. Cano 2b
W. Betemit 3b
M. Ensberg 3b -Betemit left with an injury in the 4th-
C. Moeller c
Detroit
C. Granderson cf
M. Joyce lf
C. Guillen 3b
M. Ordonez rf
M. Cabrera 1b
G. Sheffield dh
E. Renteria ss
I. Rodriguez c
R. Santiago 2b
Friday, May 9, 2008
MLB.com: Yankees lose lefty Henn to Padres
DETROIT—After missing most of Spring Training due to injury, Sean Henn has found a new opportunity in San Diego. The left-hander was claimed off waivers by the Padres from the Yankees on Friday.
Henn, 27, was 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA in eight relief appearances this season between Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Class A Tampa. He was designated for assignment to create a roster spot on April 30, when the Yankees signed catcher Chad Moeller to a Major League contract.
And the Yankees lost to the Tigers 6-5.
NY Yankees(18-18) at Detroit Tigers(15-21), 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
NYY: K. Igawa (0-0, 0.00 ERA) Det: K. Rogers (2-3, 6.27 ERA)
New York Yankees
M. Cabrera, CF (.272/.336/.465)
D. Jeter, SS (.298/.328/.371)
B. Abreu, RF (.299/.365/.440)
H. Matsui, LF (.345/.426/.496)
S. Duncan, 1B (.192/.323/.269)
J. Giambi, DH (.163/.324/.419)
W. Betemit, 3B (.200/.238/.350)
R. Cano, 2B (.172/.226/.297)
C. Moeller, C (.286/.355/.464)
Detroit Tigers
I. Rodriguez, C (.252/.298/.383)
P. Polanco, 2B (.272/.357/.386)
C. Guillen, 3B (.313/.403/.470)
M. Ordonez, RF (.304/.379/.496)
M. Cabrera, 1B (.252/.342/.450)
G. Sheffield, LF (.202/.366/.315)
E. Renteria, SS (.280/.309/.386)
M. Thames, DH (.261/.320/.391)
R. Raburn, CF (.238/.360/.476)
Joe Cool versus The Gambler.
I’m not sure where Keith has been but if he shows up this could turn into a liveblog. Go Yanks.
SportingNews.com: Cabrera and Cano are the Yankees’ future
If the Yankees have a battery, it’s a twin job—Cabrera and Cano, two guys born and raised just miles apart in the Dominican Republic who have become the best of friends in their short big league stints. Cano was only 22 when he was called up from the minors early in the 2005 season, but Cabrera was even younger, 20, when he was summoned later in the year. Cano, always an effervescent extrovert, immediately took the shy Cabrera under his wing. They’re not related, but the two call each other “primo,” Spanish for cousin. “Ever since I came up,” Cabrera says, “he’s been there, helping me. He’s like my brother.”
If you’re looking for something to read at work, here’s an interesting article about Cano and Cabrera by Sean Deveney at SportingNews.
NY Post: WELLS WOULD LOVE YANKEE RETURN
May 9, 2008—For his 45th birthday in 11 days, David Wells wants something pinstriped.
The free-agent left-hander told The Post yesterday he has been working out near his home in San Diego and believes he could bolster a Yankees New York Yankees rotation suddenly besieged by question marks.
In case you needed a chuckle.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
MLB.com: Yankees power their way past Tribe
NEW YORK—There were postgame smiles all around the home clubhouse at Yankee Stadium on Thursday after Cano and Jason Giambi, who haven’t had many chances to display productive smiles, delivered big hits in a 6-3 victory over the Indians that enabled the Yankees to get on their way to Detroit in an upbeat mood with an 18-18 record after a 4-5 homestand.
Outside of one bad inning, Mussina looked very good, getting first pitch strikes to nearly every batter he faced and hitting his spots religiously. Both Cano and Giambi finally did something productive. Ohlendorf looked very good in relief, Joba got revenge, and Mo is the man. All in all, a good win to put the team, yet again, back at .500.
Cleveland Indians(16-17) at NY Yankees(17-18), 1:05pm **Game Chatter**
Cle: P. Byrd (1-2, 3.74 ERA) NYY: M. Mussina (4-3, 4.23 ERA)
Cleveland Indians
G. Sizemore, CF (.265/.392/.427)
J. Carroll, 2B (.225/.392/.275)
D. Dellucci, DH (.273/.352/.481)
J. Peralta, SS (.229/.294/.422)
B. Francisco, LF (.357/.357/.429)
F. Gutierrez, RF (.245/.287/.353)
R. Garko, 1B (.243/.358/.350)
C. Blake, 3B (.206/.287/.340)
K. Shoppach, C (.256/.333.372)
New York Yankees
J. Damon, LF (.273/ .369/ .488)
D. Jeter, SS (.300/ .331/ .375)
B. Abreu, RF (.305/ .368/ .450)
H. Matsui, DH (.339/ .424/ .496)
J. Giambi, 1B (.157/ .324/ .386)
M. Cabrera, CF (.279/.344/.477)
R. Cano, 2B (.160/.216/.256)
W. Betemit, 3B (.176/.222/.176)
J. Molina, C (.219/.239/.328)
Trying to avoid the sweep while starting three players with an OPS+ under 60 . Go Yanks.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Cleveland Indians(15-17) at NY Yankees(17-17), 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
Cle: C. Lee (5-0, 0.96 ERA) NYY: C. Wang (6-0, 3.00 ERA)
Lineups:
Cleveland Indians
G. Sizemore, CF (.270/.388/.435)
J. Carroll, 2B (.225/.392/.275) Francisco, RF (.300/.300/.400)
J. Peralta, SS (.219/.287/.419) Dellucci, LF (.274/.357/.493)
R. Garko, 1B (.243/.358/.350) Martinez, DH (.347/.380/.411)
F. Gutierrez, RF (.245/.287/.353) Peralta, SS (.219/.287/.419)
T. Hafner, DH (.211/.303/.342) Cabrera, 2B (.191/.284/.247)
B. Francisco, LF (.300/.300/.400) Blake, 1B (.202/.286/.340)
K. Shoppach, C (.275/.341/.400)
A. Marte, 3B (.063/.167/.062)
New York Yankees
J. Damon, LF (.282/.380/.504)
D. Jeter, SS (.310/.341/.388)
B. Abreu, RF (.299/.364/.441)
H. Matsui, DH (.342/.430/.505) Duncan, 1B (.182/.333/.227)
J. Giambi, 1B (.157/.324/.386) Matsui, DH (.342/.430/.505)
M. Cabrera, CF (.280/.347/.486)
R. Cano, 2B (.157/.215/.256)
W. Betemit, 3B (.176/.222/.176) Ensberg, 3B (.220/.246/.271)
J. Molina, C (.230/.250/.344)
Honk if you love Wang.
UPDATE: Giambi sits and Duncan is batting 4th. And Wedge has shuffled his entire lineup.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Say it ain’t so, Joba
With two outs in the top of the eighth inning one swing from David Dellucci shattered everyone’s view of Joba Chamberlain. Or so the Germans would have us believe.
Joba had his worst inning as a Yankee last night by allowing three runs to the Cleveland Indians, blowing a 3-2 lead and earning the young hurler his first blown save. After walking Sizemore to lead off the inning, Joba allowed a sac bunt from Carroll followed by another walk to Peralta. He then got Garko to fly out. Future Hall of Fame manager Eric Wedge then made the decision to pinch hit Dellucci for Gutierrez. My father can attest to me saying at that point, “I have a bad feeling about Dellucci here.” After fouling off a 95mph fastball, Dellucci got under a 96mph fastball thrown up and in, lifting the pitch over the right field wall for a 3-run home run. In classic WOE fashion, the Yankees failed to score any runs off Lewis in the eighth or Betancourt in the ninth and lost the game 5-3.
While many are now second-guessing Girardi’s decision to stick with Joba after two walks in the inning and the left-handed Dellucci stepping to the plate, I can’t really blame the new manager. While Joba did seem to struggle in the inning, Dellucci is hardly among the elite hitters in the league. Joba certainly has the stuff to compete against a hitter with a lifetime OPS+ of 101. I would argue that the pitch location may have been less than ideal with the short porch and Dellucci being a pull-hitter. Pitching him away may have been the better game plan. But no matter. He threw heat up and in and Dellucci turned on it. Take it and move on.
The idea of trying to find a “silver lining” out of Joba’s outing came up in the game thread. I would argue that there really is one. Joba’s blown save last night was a bad loss in his young career, no question. But it was hardly something that should change anyone’s perception of his talent. If anything, it will serve as a learning experience. What doesn’t break you makes you stronger. He’s going to fail again. It happens. Last night’s loss will help him get over future bad outings that much easier. Better he experience this first big blow(non midge-related) now in early May instead of late September.
One other positive to glean from the game was Pettitte’s performance. Aside from one bad pitch to Peralta in the fourth, he threw an excellent game. With Hughes on the DL and Kennedy sorting himself out in the minors, this team will need Pettitte, Wang, and Mussina to continue putting together performances like they have been.
Tomorrow, Cliff Lee (7-05-0, 0.96) faces off against Wang (6-0, 3.00) in what should be a tight one.
Cleveland Indians(14-17) at NY Yankees(17-16), 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
F. Carmona (3-1) vs A. Pettitte (3-3)
Lineups:
Cleveland
G. Sizemore cf
J. Carroll 2b
V. Martinez c
R. Garko 1b
J. Peralta ss
T. Hafner dh
F. Gutierrez rf
B. Francisco lf
A. Marte 3b
NY Yankees
J. Damon lf
D. Jeter ss
B. Abreu rf
H. Matsui dh
J. Giambi 1b
M. Cabrera cf
R. Cano 2b
W. Betemit 3b
J. Molina c
Betemit starts at third tonight in his first game back from injury. Go Yanks.
Courant.com: Yankees Rotation Forced To Regroup
NEW YORK - Though the Yankees (17-16) showed significant fight over the weekend, shaking their hitting funk and sweeping the Mariners to recoup the three losses to the Tigers last week, there are serious questions about their starting rotation.
At the moment, it’s Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang - then everything goes wrong. It was enough to have co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner, who was talked out of trading Hughes and Kennedy for Johan Santana, doubting the Yankees can make the playoffs in his most recent rant.
“You’d like for things to go exactly the way you planned it,” general manager Brian Cashman said, “but if you truly have a strong organization, then when someone struggles, there is going to be someone else you can turn to.”
On Sunday, that candidate was Darrell Rasner, a career minor leaguer who replaced Kennedy and threw six innings to get a win. So for this week Rasner’s in, but a No.5 starter hasn’t been identified, with Kei Igawa the logical but far-from-inspiring option.
You can’t be upset with what Wang, Mussina, and Pettitte have given the team. Everything Moose has provided is almost enough to make you forget about the Hughes and Kennedy starts. Almost. But if Kei Igawa ends up starting for this team at any point this season it may get ugly. Really ugly.
Monday, May 5, 2008
NY Daily News:Sweet-swinging Yankees sweep Mariners with 8-2 win at Stadium
Suddenly - with Hughes on the disabled list and Kennedy getting sent to the minors yesterday - Rasner has been cast into the role of rotation savior after pitching the Yankees to an 8-2 victory over the Mariners at the Stadium Sunday.
The Yanks swept the three-game series, outscoring Seattle, 19-4, and hitting .324 as a team. They rose above the .500 mark at 17-16.
I’m still on vacation but here’s a new thread.
